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As 2026 begins, the technology landscape continues to evolve, but the fundamentals required to build enduring companies have become increasingly clear. AI adoption is accelerating, operating discipline is strengthening, and founders are prioritizing solutions that address real economic pain rather than chasing frivolous ideas. Across both early and growth-stage markets, we are seeing a renewed focus on durability, efficiency, and defensibility. Informed by ongoing conversations with founders, operators, and industry leaders, we present our 2026 predictions.
2026 will be a ‘prove it’ year for early and growth-stage managers.
With rates easing, the IPO window reopening, and public multiples approaching historic highs, conditions create opportunity, but they also raise the bar.
Companies will need to demonstrate durable growth and a clear path to profitability to earn premium valuations. Those that cannot may feel pressure to transact below expectations. Managers who execute will convert paper gains into realized outcomes, while those who rely on hope or momentum risk being exposed in a market that demands proof.
Sam McBride, Senior Associate, Investor Relations
Public markets embrace the new revolution of AI companies.
The ongoing AI revolution is reaching public markets, and mega private rounds in the space will transition into mega IPOs. I expect Anthropic and Databricks IPOs will open the floodgates for fast-growing technology companies in 2026 and will be met with high investor demand.
With two rate cuts in 2025 and additional cuts expected in 2026, market conditions support a renewed appetite for premium technology names.
Josh Anagnostou, Investor
ROI based valuation is here, again.
AI will remain a central theme, but companies will increasingly need to demonstrate fundamental economic and financial justification, similar to the heightened performance expectations now placed on SaaS companies.
Brady Broadbent, Partner, Growth
Over $500 billion of retail ecommerce will occur directly in AI searches in 2026.
2026 will be the year that eCommerce will be wildly disrupted by direct purchase through AI search.
We’re already seeing this take shape. OpenAI and Anthropic now enable direct purchasing on their platforms, and Walmart’s partnership with OpenAI brings shopping straight into ChatGPT. These shifts signal how quickly buying behavior is moving into AI interfaces, and why 2026 will mark a real inflection point for eCommerce.
Rob Rueckert, Partner
Voice will account for more than 10% of all human-to-AI agent interactions.
Voice will emerge as one of the primary ways workers communicate with knowledge-work agents, representing more than 10% of all human-to-agent interactions in 2026.
Early indicators show how quickly voice is gaining traction. 78% of executives report they will need to reinvent their operating models to unlock agentic value, and voice-focused companies make up 22% of YC’s F24 class. This momentum highlights how rapidly voice interfaces are becoming a core part of how people interact with agents.
PJ Marsh, Associate, Early Stage
50% of the Fortune 500 companies will be hit with a non-human cyber attack.
Non-Human Identity will become the primary attack vector for cyber campaigns in 2026.
The ratio of machine identities to human identities is projected to reach 80:1, dramatically expanding the attack surface. Automated attacks are lowering the skill barrier for advanced campaigns, and recent large-scale AI-driven operations show just how quickly attackers are adopting these capabilities. Security teams will need AI-level speed and automation to keep pace. The race is on.
Ken Elefant, Partner, Early Stage
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